Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 72

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Denver Broncos 7

(10:20) 8-D.Kaser punts 59 yards to DEN 13, Center-47-M.Windt. 84-I.McKenzie ran ob at DEN 44 for 31 yards.

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.56 EP
65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 72, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model