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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 2

Denver Broncos 21 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(:03) 8-B.McManus 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +3.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.97 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.48 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP