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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 39

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 8-D.Kaser punts 30 yards to DEN 9, Center-47-M.Windt. 84-I.McKenzie to DEN 18 for 9 yards (30-A.Ekeler).

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.53 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 39, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 48, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP