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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 26

Los Angeles Chargers 21 – Denver Broncos 24

What Actually Happened

(:05) 9-Y.Koo 44 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-S.Harris), Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +1.45 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.04 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 36, worth -0.05 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model