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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 78

Denver Broncos 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 21

What Actually Happened

(2:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to LAC 38, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.80 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 78, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 35, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model