4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 74

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Denver Broncos 21

What Actually Happened

(8:29) 8-D.Kaser punts 62 yards to DEN 12, Center-47-M.Windt. 84-I.McKenzie to DEN 20 for 8 yards (31-A.Phillips; 58-N.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 74, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 32, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model