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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 51

Los Angeles Chargers 21 – Denver Broncos 24

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 8-D.Kaser punts 36 yards to DEN 15, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-51-K.Emanuel.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.55 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 51, worth -1.83 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model