4th & Data
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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Saturday 2017-01-07 · 20:15 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 8.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

DET
37.3%
SEA
62.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA defense: -0.091 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 22
–
SEA 26
Projected margin: SEA by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

DET

DeAndre Levy LB Questionable Knee
Riley Reiff T Questionable Hip
Andre Roberts WR Questionable Shoulder
Travis Swanson C Questionable Concussion

SEA

Tony McDaniel DT Out Concussion
C.J. Prosise RB Out Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 6
–
SEA 26

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 07:14 TD SEA (7:14) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 10-P.Richardson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-32-T.Wilson, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. DET 0 – SEA 6
  • Q2 02:00 FG SEA (2:00) 4-S.Hauschka 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan. DET 0 – SEA 10
  • Q2 00:25 FG DET (:25) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 3 – SEA 10
  • Q3 04:08 FG DET (4:08) 5-M.Prater 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 6 – SEA 10
  • Q4 14:15 FG SEA (14:15) 4-S.Hauschka 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan. DET 6 – SEA 13
  • Q4 08:53 TD SEA (8:53) (Shotgun) 34-T.Rawls right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – SEA 19
  • Q4 03:43 TD SEA (3:43) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 89-D.Baldwin for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – SEA 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (14:16) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to SEA 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 17-D.Hester to SEA 26 for 5 yards (38-A.Barnes). PENALTY on DET-29-J.Bademosi, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 26.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (12:49) 9-J.Ryan punts 34 yards to DET 23, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 23%

    (9:06) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to SEA 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 17-D.Hester.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 12 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:51) 9-J.Ryan punts 44 yards to DET 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-A.Roberts MUFFS catch, and recovers at DET 24. 12-A.Roberts to DET 24 for no gain (27-N.Thorpe).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 55%

    (15:00) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 82-M.Mulligan to SEA 40 for -2 yards (54-B.Wagner; 50-K.Wright).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 52%

    (12:21) (Shotgun) 34-T.Rawls up the middle to DET 35 for 4 yards (57-J.Bynes).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

    (7:14) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 10-P.Richardson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-32-T.Wilson, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 4 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 83%

    (2:00) 4-S.Hauschka 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 9 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 67%

    (:25) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 15 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 52%

    (9:46) 9-J.Ryan punts 35 yards to DET 4, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-69-T.Ott.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 62%

    (4:08) 5-M.Prater 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (14:15) 4-S.Hauschka 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 9 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:12) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to SEA 28, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-38-A.Barnes. PENALTY on SEA-27-N.Thorpe, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 28.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:00) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to SEA 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 17-D.Hester.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 13 at the 56 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 11-M.Jones.