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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 39

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(9:46) 9-J.Ryan punts 35 yards to DET 4, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-69-T.Ott.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.56 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 39, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.18 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 48, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model