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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 25

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-S.Hauschka 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.51 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 35, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model