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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 2

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(7:14) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 10-P.Richardson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-32-T.Wilson, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

The Three Options

GO +3.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.72 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 2, worth +0.29 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model