4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 39

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(12:21) (Shotgun) 34-T.Rawls up the middle to DET 35 for 4 yards (57-J.Bynes).

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.56 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 39, worth -1.87 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 48, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model