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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 38

Detroit Lions 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 82-M.Mulligan to SEA 40 for -2 yards (54-B.Wagner; 50-K.Wright).

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.39 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 38, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 47, worth -2.91 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model