4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 56

Detroit Lions 6 – Seattle Seahawks 26

What Actually Happened

(1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 11-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.39 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 56, worth -0.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model