4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 51

Detroit Lions 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(9:06) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to SEA 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 17-D.Hester.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.49 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 51, worth -3.08 EP
KICK -1.99 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP