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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
Sunday 2017-01-01 · 20:30 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

GB
63.4%
DET
36.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.149 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Aaron Rodgers (GB): +0.213 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DET offense: -0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • GB defense: +0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 25
–
DET 21
Projected margin: GB by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

GB

James Starks RB Out Concussion
Randall Cobb WR Questionable Ankle
Jayrone Elliott LB Questionable Hand
Damarious Randall CB Questionable Shoulder
Joe Thomas LB Questionable Back
J.C. Tretter C Questionable Knee

DET

Theo Riddick RB Out Wrist
Travis Swanson C Doubtful Concussion
DeAndre Levy LB Questionable Knee
Andre Roberts WR Questionable Shoulder
Darius Slay CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 31
–
DET 24

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 10:54 TD GB (10:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 22-A.Ripkowski for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – DET 0
  • Q2 05:03 TD DET (5:03) 34-Z.Zenner right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – DET 6
  • Q2 00:26 TD DET (:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-G.Tate for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – DET 13
  • Q2 00:03 FG GB (:03) 2-M.Crosby 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. GB 10 – DET 14
  • Q3 09:27 TD GB (9:27) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-D.Adams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [27-G.Quin]. PENALTY on GB-17-D.Adams, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. GB 16 – DET 14
  • Q4 10:13 TD GB (10:13) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 81-G.Allison for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-E.Ansah]. GB 23 – DET 14
  • Q4 07:47 FG DET (7:47) 5-M.Prater 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. GB 23 – DET 17
  • Q4 02:54 TD GB (2:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 29 – DET 17
  • Q4 00:22 TD DET (:22) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 80-A.Boldin for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 31 – DET 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (14:22) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to GB 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 33-M.Hyde to GB 25 for 10 yards (84-C.Harbor).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 10 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (10:32) 10-J.Schum punts 43 yards to DET 13, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 9 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:29) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to GB 33, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 33-M.Hyde to GB 49 for 16 yards (48-D.Muhlbach). PENALTY on GB-23-D.Randall, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 37.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 15 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:26) 10-J.Schum punts 44 yards to DET 11, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 90%

    (15:00) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (2:40) 10-J.Schum punts 28 yards to DET 31, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 67%

    (:03) 2-M.Crosby 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 15 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:47) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to GB 9, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 33-M.Hyde to GB 15 for 6 yards (34-Z.Zenner).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 10 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:51) 10-J.Schum punts 53 yards to DET 5, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-25-M.Evans.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 13 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:50) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to GB 19, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 33-M.Hyde to GB 19 for no gain (29-J.Bademosi).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 65%

    (7:47) 5-M.Prater 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 13 at the 83 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:28) 10-J.Schum punts 18 yards to GB 35, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.