Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 69

Detroit Lions 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

(14:22) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to GB 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 33-M.Hyde to GB 25 for 10 yards (84-C.Harbor).

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.30 EP
51% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model