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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 59

Green Bay Packers 7 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(2:40) 10-J.Schum punts 28 yards to DET 31, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.95 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 59, worth -3.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 18, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model