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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 35

Green Bay Packers 7 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(:03) 2-M.Crosby 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.06 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 35, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 45, worth -0.25 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model