Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 56

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 0

(10:32) 10-J.Schum punts 43 yards to DET 13, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.71 EP
65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 56, worth -3.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model