Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 65

Detroit Lions 14 – Green Bay Packers 17

(6:47) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to GB 9, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 33-M.Hyde to GB 15 for 6 yards (34-Z.Zenner).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.82 EP
72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model