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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 20

Detroit Lions 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.98 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model