Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 73

Detroit Lions 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:29) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to GB 33, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 33-M.Hyde to GB 49 for 16 yards (48-D.Muhlbach). PENALTY on GB-23-D.Randall, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 37.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.25 EP
64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model