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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
Sunday 2016-12-18 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

PIT
44.5%
CIN
55.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: +0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • PIT offense: +0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Andy Dalton (CIN) +0.134 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.144 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

PIT 23
–
CIN 25
Projected margin: CIN by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

PIT

Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Out Foot
Shamarko Thomas S Out Concussion

CIN

Wallace Gilberry DE Doubtful Calf
A.J. Green WR Doubtful Hamstring
Clark Harris LS Questionable Groin
Derron Smith S Questionable Thigh
C.J. Uzomah TE Questionable Calf
James Wright WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 24
–
CIN 20

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:42 FG CIN (7:42) 4-R.Bullock 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. PIT 0 – CIN 3
  • Q1 03:47 FG PIT (3:47) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 3 – CIN 3
  • Q1 00:04 TD CIN (:04) 14-A.Dalton right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – CIN 9
  • Q2 09:06 TD CIN (9:06) 32-J.Hill right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – CIN 16
  • Q2 05:31 FG PIT (5:31) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 6 – CIN 17
  • Q2 02:55 FG CIN (2:55) 4-R.Bullock 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. PIT 6 – CIN 20
  • Q2 00:11 FG PIT (:11) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 9 – CIN 20
  • Q3 10:43 FG PIT (10:43) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 12 – CIN 20
  • Q3 02:09 FG PIT (2:09) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 15 – CIN 20
  • Q4 12:29 FG PIT (12:29) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 18 – CIN 20
  • Q4 07:36 TD PIT (7:36) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 17-E.Rogers for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 24 – CIN 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (7:42) 4-R.Bullock 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 11 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 79%

    (3:47) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (:04) 14-A.Dalton right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:26) 4-J.Berry punts 40 yards to CIN 18, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (2:55) 4-R.Bullock 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 71%

    (:11) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 11 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 87%

    (10:43) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 19 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (6:30) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to PIT 30, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 11 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 71%

    (2:09) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 95%

    (12:29) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:00) 10-K.Huber punts 45 yards to PIT 31, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 14 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:05) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to PIT 11, Center-46-C.Harris. 84-A.Brown to PIT 16 for 5 yards (21-D.Dennard).