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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Cincinnati Bengals
4th & 1 at the 1
Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3
What Actually Happened
(:04) 14-A.Dalton right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+4.15 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.08 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.62 EP
KICK
+2.10 EP
- 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT
+0.01 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
