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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 76

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Pittsburgh Steelers 18

What Actually Happened

(11:00) 10-K.Huber punts 45 yards to PIT 31, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.72 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model