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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 58

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(13:26) 4-J.Berry punts 40 yards to CIN 18, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.52 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 58, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model