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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 12

Pittsburgh Steelers 15 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(12:29) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.32 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP