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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 5

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:42) 4-R.Bullock 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +2.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.43 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 5, worth +0.60 EP
KICK +2.42 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP