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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 22

Pittsburgh Steelers 9 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(10:43) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.99 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 32, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model