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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 31

Pittsburgh Steelers 12 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(2:09) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.50 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 41, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model