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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
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CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
Sunday 2016-12-18 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌨 Snow Spread -4.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

GB
63.5%
CHI
36.5%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Aaron Rodgers (GB): +0.190 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • GB defense: +0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.026 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 24
–
CHI 20
Projected margin: GB by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

GB

Nick Perry LB Doubtful Hand
James Starks RB Doubtful Concussion
Aaron Rodgers QB Questionable Calf
Randall Cobb WR Questionable Ankle
Kyler Fackrell LB Questionable Hamstring
Blake Martinez LB Questionable Knee
Christine Michael RB Questionable Illness
Damarious Randall CB Questionable Groin
Aaron Ripkowski RB Questionable Back
J.C. Tretter C Questionable Knee

CHI

Eddie Royal WR Out Toe
Marquess Wilson WR Out Groin
Eddie Goldman DT Questionable Ankle
Johnthan Banks CB Questionable Ankle
Bryce Callahan CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 30
–
CHI 27

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:02 TD GB (10:02) (Shotgun) 88-T.Montgomery right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – CHI 0
  • Q2 06:05 FG CHI (6:05) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. GB 7 – CHI 3
  • Q2 02:23 TD CHI (2:23) 12-M.Barkley pass short right to 11-J.Bellamy for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – CHI 9
  • Q2 00:37 FG GB (:37) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. GB 10 – CHI 10
  • Q3 11:15 FG GB (11:15) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 18 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. GB 13 – CHI 10
  • Q3 04:57 TD GB (4:57) (Shotgun) 88-T.Montgomery left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 19 – CHI 10
  • Q3 01:13 TD GB (1:13) (Shotgun) 32-C.Michael right end for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 26 – CHI 10
  • Q4 13:31 TD CHI (13:31) (Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley pass short right to 17-A.Jeffery for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 27 – CHI 16
  • Q4 07:40 TD CHI (7:40) 24-J.Howard left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 27 – CHI 23
  • Q4 01:23 FG CHI (1:23) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. GB 27 – CHI 27
  • Q4 00:03 FG GB (:03) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. GB 30 – CHI 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 3 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 43%

    (7:55) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to GB 1, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-11-J.Bellamy.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 16 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:42) (Punt formation) 10-J.Schum punts 38 yards to CHI 19, Center-61-B.Goode. 22-C.LeBlanc to CHI 28 for 9 yards (83-J.Janis).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (15:00) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to GB 18, Center-48-P.Scales. 33-M.Hyde to GB 25 for 7 yards (52-C.Jones; 58-J.Anderson). PENALTY on GB-50-B.Martinez, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 20. Penalty on GB-83-J.Janis, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 3 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 86%

    (11:20) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at CHI 28 for -6 yards (92-P.McPhee).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 97%

    (6:05) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (4:31) (Punt formation) 10-J.Schum punts 33 yards to CHI 35, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 22-C.LeBlanc. PENALTY on GB-29-K.Brice, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 35.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 10 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 92%

    (:37) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.16 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (11:15) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 18 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 13 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:19) (Punt formation) 10-J.Schum punts 45 yards to CHI 32, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds. PENALTY on CHI-32-D.Hall, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 32.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (5:55) (Punt formation) 10-J.Schum punts 52 yards to CHI 13, Center-61-B.Goode. 22-C.LeBlanc to CHI 21 for 8 yards (33-M.Hyde).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 4 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (1:23) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.