Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 66

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to GB 18, Center-48-P.Scales. 33-M.Hyde to GB 25 for 7 yards (52-C.Jones; 58-J.Anderson). PENALTY on GB-50-B.Martinez, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 20. Penalty on GB-83-J.Janis, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.03 EP
52% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model