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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 68

Green Bay Packers 7 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(4:31) (Punt formation) 10-J.Schum punts 33 yards to CHI 35, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 22-C.LeBlanc. PENALTY on GB-29-K.Brice, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 35.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.41 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 68, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 26, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model