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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 65

Green Bay Packers 27 – Chicago Bears 24

What Actually Happened

(5:55) (Punt formation) 10-J.Schum punts 52 yards to CHI 13, Center-61-B.Goode. 22-C.LeBlanc to CHI 21 for 8 yards (33-M.Hyde).

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.66 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 65, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 23, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP