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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 57

Green Bay Packers 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(1:42) (Punt formation) 10-J.Schum punts 38 yards to CHI 19, Center-61-B.Goode. 22-C.LeBlanc to CHI 28 for 9 yards (83-J.Janis).

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.95 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 57, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 17, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model