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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 41

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:55) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to GB 1, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-11-J.Bellamy.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.65 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.68 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT +0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP