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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 16

Green Bay Packers 7 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(:37) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.24 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 16, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model