Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 77

Green Bay Packers 27 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(11:19) (Punt formation) 10-J.Schum punts 45 yards to CHI 32, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds. PENALTY on CHI-32-D.Hall, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 32.

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.87 EP
66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 77, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model