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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
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BUF Home

Buffalo Bills

HC Rex Ryan
Sunday 2016-12-11 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

PIT
48.4%
BUF
51.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.085 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • PIT offense: +0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • BUF defense: +0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): +0.155 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

PIT 23
–
BUF 24
Projected margin: BUF by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

PIT

Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Out Foot
Shamarko Thomas S Out Concussion
Javon Hargrave DT Doubtful Concussion
Ramon Foster G Questionable Chest
Chris Boswell K Questionable Abdomen
DeAngelo Williams RB Questionable Knee

BUF

Lerentee McCray LB Out Concussion
Kyle Williams DT Questionable Back
Charles Clay TE Questionable Knee
Cordy Glenn T Questionable Back
Sammy Watkins WR Questionable Foot
Robert Woods WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 27
–
BUF 20

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:05 TD PIT (6:05) (Shotgun) 26-L.Bell left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – BUF 0
  • Q2 12:05 TD PIT (12:05) 26-L.Bell left guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 13 – BUF 0
  • Q2 07:11 TD BUF (7:11) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short middle to 14-S.Watkins for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 5 yds. into end zone, slanting from left. PIT 14 – BUF 6
  • Q3 05:35 TD PIT (5:35) 26-L.Bell left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. L.Bell ties PIT team record with 3 rushing TDs in game (last done 9/20/15 by DeAngelo Williams vs. S.F.) PIT 20 – BUF 7
  • Q4 10:02 FG PIT (10:02) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 24 – BUF 7
  • Q4 07:39 TD BUF (7:39) 5-T.Taylor pass deep left to 85-C.Clay for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-A.Chickillo]. Caught along sideline at PIT 22. PIT 24 – BUF 13
  • Q4 03:43 FG PIT (3:43) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 27 – BUF 13
  • Q4 01:28 TD BUF (1:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 27 – BUF 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 12 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:17) 6-C.Schmidt punts 44 yards to PIT 18, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 84-A.Brown ran ob at PIT 29 for 11 yards.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 16 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:25) 6-C.Schmidt punts 41 yards to PIT 49, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 84-A.Brown to BUF 44 for 7 yards (36-J.Meeks). 0-yd. return credited (foul during kick). PENALTY on PIT-14-S.Coates, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 49.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 48%

    (14:19) (No Huddle) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 82-D.Johnson pushed ob at BUF 25 for 15 yards (52-P.Brown). Dump pass, caught at BUF 41.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (9:38) 6-C.Schmidt punts 32 yards to PIT 25, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 15 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:42) 4-J.Berry punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-60-G.Warren, Touchback.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (2:33) 6-C.Schmidt punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (:45) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to BUF 15, Center-60-G.Warren. 15-B.Tate to BUF 15 for no gain (44-T.Matakevich, 37-J.Dangerfield).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:14) 6-C.Schmidt punts 52 yards to PIT 18, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 84-A.Brown ran ob at PIT 18 for no gain (27-J.Ihedigbo).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (4:11) 6-C.Schmidt punts 46 yards to PIT 23, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 84-A.Brown pushed ob at PIT 40 for 17 yards (6-C.Schmidt).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 90%

    (10:02) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 8 at the 21 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 88%

    (3:43) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.