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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 57

Buffalo Bills 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 6-C.Schmidt punts 32 yards to PIT 25, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.88 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP