Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 62

Buffalo Bills 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

(9:17) 6-C.Schmidt punts 44 yards to PIT 18, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 84-A.Brown ran ob at PIT 29 for 11 yards.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.08 EP
68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model