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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 19

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(10:02) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.53 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 19, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP