Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 69

Buffalo Bills 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

(4:11) 6-C.Schmidt punts 46 yards to PIT 23, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 84-A.Brown pushed ob at PIT 40 for 17 yards (6-C.Schmidt).

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
49% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model