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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 21

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.64 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 31, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model