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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 40

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(14:19) (No Huddle) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 82-D.Johnson pushed ob at BUF 25 for 15 yards (52-P.Brown). Dump pass, caught at BUF 41.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.97 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model