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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 70

Buffalo Bills 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(12:14) 6-C.Schmidt punts 52 yards to PIT 18, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 84-A.Brown ran ob at PIT 18 for no gain (27-J.Ihedigbo).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.28 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model