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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
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San Diego Chargers

HC Mike McCoy
Sunday 2016-12-04 · 16:25 Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

TB
42.3%
SD
57.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC defense: -0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • TB crossing 2 time zone(s)

Predicted Final Score

TB 22
–
SD 25
Projected margin: SD by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

TB

Chris Conte S Out Chest
Evan Smith C Out Knee
Brandon Myers TE Questionable Hip
Jacquizz Rodgers RB Questionable Foot
Ryan Smith S Questionable Shoulder
Gerald McCoy DT Questionable Foot

SD

Jeremiah Attaochu LB Out Foot
Jatavis Brown LB Out Knee
Brandon Flowers CB Out Concussion
Asante Cleveland TE Questionable Concussion
Tenny Palepoi DT Questionable Shoulder
Tyrell Williams WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 28
–
SD 21

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:03 TD LAC (11:03) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 15-D.Inman for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. TB 0 – SD 6
  • Q1 01:15 TD TB (1:15) 22-D.Martin left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – SD 7
  • Q2 10:08 TD LAC (10:08) (Shotgun) 28-M.Gordon up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 7 – SD 13
  • Q3 08:29 FG TB (8:29) 19-R.Aguayo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 10 – SD 14
  • Q3 04:32 TD TB (4:32) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 16-Ty.Williams INTERCEPTED by 54-L.David (28-V.Hargreaves) at LAC 15. 54-L.David for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 16 – SD 14
  • Q3 01:42 TD LAC (1:42) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 16-Ty.Williams for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 17 – SD 20
  • Q4 13:07 FG TB (13:07) 19-R.Aguayo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 20 – SD 21
  • Q4 09:06 TD TB (9:06) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 84-C.Brate for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 26 – SD 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 12 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 60%

    (5:40) 2-J.Lambo 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:14) 9-B.Anger punts 54 yards to LAC 20, Center-48-A.DePaola. 89-I.Burse to LAC 32 for 12 yards (43-P.Barber).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (7:55) 8-D.Kaser punts 40 yards to TB 21, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-A.Humphries ran ob at TB 28 for 7 yards (58-To.Williams).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 25%

    (3:21) 43-P.Barber up the middle to LAC 48 for 2 yards (51-K.Emanuel).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%

    (:49) 19-R.Aguayo 31 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 7 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (8:29) 19-R.Aguayo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 16 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (6:37) 8-D.Kaser punts 49 yards to TB 21, Center-47-M.Windt. 28-V.Hargreaves pushed ob at TB 30 for 9 yards (25-D.Stuckey).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (4:42) 9-B.Anger punts 54 yards to LAC 8, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 89-I.Burse.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 93%

    (13:07) 19-R.Aguayo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:25) 8-D.Kaser punts 38 yards to TB 41, Center-47-M.Windt. 28-V.Hargreaves to TB 46 for 5 yards (25-D.Stuckey, 51-K.Emanuel).