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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 62

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(4:42) 9-B.Anger punts 54 yards to LAC 8, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 89-I.Burse.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.92 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP