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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(:49) 19-R.Aguayo 31 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.62 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model